Risk is a function of the probability of a hazard occurrence and the overall consequence of the affected area. A hazard becomes a risk when assets are exposed to the particular hazard and if those exposed assets are vulnerable to it.
Having estimated hazards (see Impact Assessment), the next step is the prediction of risk and vulnerability of coastal areas and infrastructural systems, which will require fragility models of components. These models will provide the probability of damage, conditional to the hazard intensity. Port components such as wharves and piers, are particularly exposed to climate-related events such as extreme sea level rise, storm surge, wind, and flooding. Urban coastal areas are also very vulnerable to extreme events, which have been know to cause extensive damage to buildings, transportation infrastructure and cultural heritage, affecting the well-being of coastal communities and the tourism industry.
MOIRAI will utilize the output of seasonal and decadal predictions of the ocean regional models and high-fidelity coastal models, and develop 1hydrodynamic models and analytical methodologies that will calculate (i) the impact on port infrastructure, coastal buildings and cultural heritage, and (ii) nonlinear finite element (FEM) models that will simulate the potential damage. Semi-empirical equations and methodologies, such as the ones available in the Eurotop manual, together with sophisticated computational fluid dynamics models that have been validated in the past (e.g. FEM23,24 or FVM), in order to predict the hydrodynamic effects (loads, pressures). The sophisticated FEM nonlinear models will produce damage threshold matrices and fragility curves that will identify the type of failure as a function of the intensity and type of hazard (surge, wave etc), which are currently not available. Based on this multi-scale and integrated multi-model approach, simpler and computationally more efficient surrogate models will be developed and used in the coastal risk assessment framework that will act as a critical risk service to coastal communities and support for policy implementation.